“To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false pretenses, they [the Romans] call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.”
– Tacitus, Agricola
“What kind of peace do I mean? What kind of peace do we seek? Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children–not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women–not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.”
– John F. Kennedy
Throughout the course of history there occasionally emerges a power so strong that it is able to dictate and enforce the rules of the game to everyone around them. Political historians call this power a hegemon and there have been a few that have dominated our history books- Rome, Spain, England, America.
Naturally we will focus the essay on Rome and America. First we will outline how they achieved their position as the dominant player. Next we will discuss how they were able to maintain this dominance. Finally, we will list some of the key factors that led to Rome’s decline and that can potentially undermine the Pax Americana.
Before we track the trajectories of these two great empires let’s spend a moment to outline the pillars of their control. These are the items that enable them to wield their power. They are military control, economic power, infrastructure networks, common currency and trade networks, and finally cultural projection. Let’s dive in a little deeper.
Components of Control for the Hegemon
Military Power
A hegemon’s power ultimately rests on its ability to enforce order and deter rivals through undisputed military overmatch. This control is not merely about winning wars, but about maintaining a continuous, credible capacity for global or regional power projection that renders rebellion or competition futile. By establishing a security umbrella over its sphere of influence, the hegemon suppresses regional conflicts that could disrupt the broader system. In Roman times the multidisciplinary effectiveness of the legion was enough to maintain borders and quell any possible incursions from barbarians. In modern times alliances like NATO ensured that European interests were aligned with America and that Russian/Soviet influence was limited.
Economic Power
Economic power serves as both the engine and the bank account of hegemonic dominance. The hegemon must possess a massive, technologically advanced domestic economy that allows it to dictate the rules of global finance, fund its military apparatus, and leverage access to its consumer markets as a geopolitical tool. By controlling industrial output, capital flows, and international lending institutions, the hegemon creates a system where other nations become structurally dependent on its economic health. Rome’s control of key agricultural outputs and its economic system helped it become the platform for trade and commerce. The US has cultivated an environment of innovation and risk taking that has enabled it to dominate critical industries.
Infrastructure Networks
Physical and digital infrastructure networks form the vascular system of an empire, anchoring its administrative and logistical control. A hegemon must build and maintain the pathways that connect the periphery to the core. These networks ensure that military forces can deploy rapidly to extinguish threats and that commercial logistics remain uninterrupted. Protecting these channels is a critical requirement for power retention because infrastructure defines the limits of power projection. The Roman road network is the best example from antiquity. In modern times the US dominates physical (sea lanes to fiber optic cable) and monetary (ranging from capital markets to legal frameworks) infrastructure.
Common Currency and Trade Networks
By establishing a trusted reserve currency and structuring global trade networks around its own market preferences, a hegemon drastically lowers transaction costs and locks other nations into its orbit. When the hegemon’s currency becomes the default medium of exchange for vital commodities, it gains the unique privilege of exporting its inflation, running structural deficits, and utilizing financial sanctions to isolate rogue actors without firing a shot. Maintaining this financial architecture is essential for preserving power. It ensures that international trade inherently benefits the hegemon’s corporate and state interests, transforming global commerce into a self-funding mechanism for the empire’s longevity. During the Pax Romana the Empire dominated the Mediterranean and had trade networks as far away as China and most people used their coinage.. In modern times the US controls the Global financial system from trade agreements to organizations like the World Bank and everyone trades in dollars.
Cultural Projection
Coercion can build an empire, but cultural projection—or “soft power”—is what makes it sustainable by securing the ideological buy-in of both elites and foreign publics. When a hegemon successfully exports its values, legal philosophies, language, and consumer lifestyle, it shapes the preferences, desires, and norms of the global community. Retaining this cultural influence is vital for the preservation of power because it minimizes the need for costly military enforcement; when the rest of the world aspires to live, speak, and govern like the hegemon, the costs of maintaining international order drop significantly. Rome created a culture that facilitated assimilation into the greater whole. With America tools like international aid and Hollywood were used to project American values globally.
Rome’s Pax Romana
Armed Peace: Military Control and Border Security
At the foundation of the Augustan peace lay the ultimate paradox: the Pax Romana was bought and maintained by the sword. Augustus fundamentally restructured the Roman military, transitioning it from the factional citizen-armies of the late Republic into a permanent, highly professional standing force of 28 legions, supplemented by auxiliary units. Rather than stationing these forces within the interior of the empire—where they could destabilize civilian governance—the legions were deployed permanently along the hostile frontiers (the limes), such as the Rhine, Danube, and Euphrates rivers. Click here for a nice map on where the legions were stationed throughout the empire.
Their strategic positioning served a dual purpose. Externally, it projected absolute deterrence against migration and foreign incursions. Internally, the strategic absence of active garrisoning in the core provinces minimized the daily visibility of military subjugation, fostering an illusion of civilian normalcy. When internal rebellions did arise—such as the First Jewish-Roman War or the revolt of Boudica—the response was swift, total, and brutal. This balance of total frontier exclusion and overwhelming punitive capability established an absolute monopoly on violence, creating the secure space required for civil infrastructure and commerce to flourish.
The Arteries of Empire: Infrastructure Networks
Physical connectivity was the vital mechanism through which Rome transformed military domination into logistical and economic integration. The construction of the legendary Roman road network, totaling over 80,000 kilometers of paved highways, was initially driven by tactical imperatives. These all-weather roads allowed the legions to march with unprecedented velocity to any point of crisis, effectively multiplying the defensive utility of the standing army. Click here to see how expansive the roman network was or here for how roman roads were constructed.
However, the infrastructure quickly transcended its martial origins. The creation of the Cursus Publicus—the state-sponsored courier and postal system—facilitated near-instantaneous administrative communication between Rome and her distant provincial governors. Furthermore, monumental engineering projects, including stone bridges, deep-water harbors, and standard-setting aqueducts, bound the urban centers of the Mediterranean into a shared technological standard. By altering the landscape, Rome physically demonstrated its mastery over nature, anchoring the permanence of imperial authority in concrete and stone.
Roman roads facilitated commerce
Commercial Integration: Currency and Trade Networks
With security guaranteed by the legions and transit accelerated by the road networks, Rome capitalized on its position to forge a highly integrated Mediterranean market. Central to this economic engine was the enforcement of a common currency. The silver denarius and gold aureus became the undisputed legal tender from the hills of Britannia to the borders of Parthia. This monetary uniformity eliminated the friction of local currency exchanges, lowered transaction costs, and provided a predictable store of value that stimulated large-scale capital investment.
Concurrently, the eradication of piracy by the Roman navy transformed the Mediterranean Sea into Mare Nostrum (“Our Sea”), a maritime superhighway. Huge merchant fleets transported grain from Egypt and North Africa to sustain the massive urban population of Rome, while Spanish olive oil, Gallic wine, and British metals flowed freely across provincial boundaries. The resulting economic interdependence meant that the prosperity of local provincial elites became inextricably linked to the survival of the imperial center, aligning their economic self-interest with Roman political continuity.
Cultural Projection and Romanization
The final and perhaps most durable pillar of the Pax Romana was the sophisticated deployment of cultural soft power, a process frequently conceptualized as Romanization. Rome did not seek to crudely eradicate local identities; rather, it incentivized provincial elites to adopt Roman culture voluntarily. The state extended Roman citizenship strategically, first to loyal Italian allies, then to provincial aristocracy, and eventually to entire municipal communities as a reward for loyalty and administrative integration.
Urbanism served as the primary vector for this cultural projection. Throughout Gaul, Hispania, and North Africa, cities were intentionally built or remodeled on a standardized grid layout, featuring forums, basilicas, theaters, public baths, and amphitheaters. Participating in Roman civic life—enjoying public games, utilizing heated baths, and speaking Latin—became synonymous with high social status and civilization itself. By transforming conquered peoples into stakeholders who took pride in Roman civic identity, the empire minimized the cost of direct coercion. Cultural projection ensured that the Pax Romana was maintained not merely by external force, but through internal consensus.
The American Century
The Pax Americana, characterizing the period of relative macro-stability and economic integration across the Western hemisphere following World War II and expanding globally after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, mirrors the structural hegemony of ancient Rome. Rather than relying on formal territorial annexation, the United States engineered a modern global ecosystem based on institutional frameworks and systemic alignment. By translating the classical pillars of empire into contemporary geopolitical mechanisms, the United States constructed a foundation where international compliance offers clear economic, security, and social rewards, establishing an enduring framework of global order.
Military Control and Power Projection
The American security apparatus has been underwritten by a global network of forward-deployed military bases, formal security alliances, and overwhelming technological superiority. Following 1945, the United States established permanent installations across Western Europe and East Asia, effectively internalizing the defense of key industrial hubs while discouraging regional arms races.
This footprint is formalized through multilateral and bilateral defense pacts—most notably NATO, as well as treaties with Japan, South Korea, and Australia—positioning the United States as the ultimate guarantor of regional security. This security umbrella provides a massive deterrent against state-on-state aggression. By securing the global commons (air, space, and cyberspace) and maintaining a blue-water navy capable of projecting overwhelming force to any corner of the globe within hours, the United States enforces a systemic monopoly on large-scale violence, maintaining international stability from a posture of continuous deterrence.
Infrastructure and Logistics
The primary logistical achievement of American hegemony is the enforcement of freedom of navigation across the world’s oceanic choke points (such as the Straits of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal). By utilizing its naval assets to patrol these sea lines of communication, the United States guarantees unhindered transit for global commerce, functioning as the vital architect of modern globalization.
In the digital era, this infrastructure shifted toward data networks and financial architecture. The foundational hardware of the global internet—undersea fiber-optic cables, satellite coommunications, and root domain servers—was largely developed, financed, and secured under American auspices. Furthermore, global civilian aviation standards, space tracking systems, and satellite navigation (GPS, originally a U.S. military asset gifted to the global public) serve as the contemporary equivalents of the Roman Cursus Publicus and aqueducts, binding the world into a singular, highly synchronized technological and logistical framework.
Reserve Currency and Global Trade Networks
Just as the silver denarius unified Mediterranean commerce, the United States dollar operates as the undisputed global reserve currency, serving as the financial bedrock of the Pax Americana. Codified initially under the Bretton Woods system in 1944, the dollar became the primary medium for international trade, commodity pricing (such as oil), and foreign exchange reserves. This monetary dominance lowers transaction costs for global markets and grants the United States unparalleled capital mobility and economic leverage.
Concurrently, the United States championed a rules-based international trading system through institutions like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and its successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). By advocating for tariff reductions, open markets, and the protection of intellectual property, the United States incentivized international partners to align their economies with the Western capital market. Because the domestic prosperity of allied nations and rising powers became explicitly dependent on access to American consumers and the stability of the dollar-denominated financial system, global elites found their economic self-interest structurally wedded to the continuity of American political leadership.
Cultural Projection and Liberal Internationalism
The soft power of the American influence is perhaps its most pervasive tool for manufacturing consensus. The United States projects its influence through the universalization of democratic ideals, market capitalism, consumer culture, and digital media. Participating in the modern globalized community is frequently equated with adopting these foundational values.
This cultural projection operates through dual vectors:
- Institutional Alignment: The creation of multinational forums—such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank—enshrined American legal, political, and economic philosophies into the default architecture of international diplomacy.
- Mass Consumerism: The global dissemination of American media, technology, music, and corporate standards created a shared global aesthetic.
By making its cultural and political models aspirational, the United States lowers the friction of its global leadership. Foreign populations and political elites internalize aspects of American civic and economic identity, allowing the Pax Americana to be maintained not merely through military or economic coercion, but through a deeply embedded global consensus.
Challenges to Hegeomony
The world is a dynamic place and nothing stays the same for long. Ultimately the alpha is challenged. This happened to Rome, and America is seeing its dominance threatened at the present moment. The decline can be due to external forces or it can happen from within….or it can be a combination of the two.
I won’t spend much time on Rome. It happened and has been studied ad nauseum. Most scholars list the items below as key contributors to the decline of the Pax Romana.
- Succession Crises and Political Instability: The empire lacked a clear, formal system for choosing new rulers. This led to constant power struggles, civil wars, and assassinations as rival generals fought for the throne, culminating in the Crisis of the Third Century.
- Military Interference in Politics: The Roman military, particularly the Praetorian Guard and regional legions, realized they could make and break emperors. Rulers increasingly focused on bribing or paying off the military to secure their loyalty rather than governing effectively.
- Economic Strain and Inflation: Maintaining a massive army and defending expansive borders became unsustainably expensive. To cover costs, emperors debased the Roman currency (reducing the precious metal content in coins), which triggered hyperinflation and a collapsing economy.
- The Antonine Plague: This devastating pandemic (likely smallpox or measles) swept through the empire in the late 2nd century, killing up to a third of the population in some areas. It severely depleted the taxpayer base and decimated the ranks of the Roman military.
- External Barbarian Pressures: As internal stability fractured, Germanic tribes along the Rhine and Danube rivers, along with the Sasanian Empire in the east, launched increasingly frequent and coordinated invasions, stretching Rome’s defensive forces to their breaking point.
- Social and Moral Fragmentation: The shared sense of Roman identity and civic duty began to erode. Wealth inequality gaped wider, and citizens in the provinces grew increasingly alienated from a corrupt, heavily taxing central government in Rome.
How Much Longer Will the American Moment Last?
The United States is a different story. It still has a say in what its future holds. Since it established the post WW2 global order it has used its economic and military power to shape the world. Since 9/11 it has seen its prominence slip due to several factors. We’ll outline those below.
Economic Threats
The American dollar has been the currency of the globe and most deals across the world are settled with the greenback. At the moment that is still the case but cracks are showing. Dedollarization is taking place by China and its BRICS partners and there is doubt that a debt laden US can continue to prop up the dollar.
Also, the US made a conscious effort during the 80’s and 90’s to move away from manufacturing towards a more knowledge based economy. China gladly filled that void and is challenging the US supremacy in even the most bleeding edge technologies. The white collar sector that was once so promising is under threat from AI. While the overall GDP is still strong, the middle class is being carved out and the Government is facing a big challenge in how to assuage the growing anxiety from an ever growing percentage of its citizens.
Unwillingness to Lead
The steady erosion of American commitment to the very multilateral institutions it built after WW2 marks a profound shift away from the post-war rules-based order. Rather than viewing bodies like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization as instruments of stabilization, Washington increasingly treats them as costly constraints on American sovereignty and leverage. This structural retreat reached a watershed moment during the Trump administration, which aggressively executed a “clearing strategy” designed to trade broad global governance for transactional, unilateral negotiations.
This has led to the current era of strongmen where people like Trump, Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu rule in a manner that belies global norms in favor of realpolitik. Rules are being threatened because the strongest players no longer feel constrained by past agreements or worried about any consequences associated with breaking these agreements.
Military Overreach
The U.S. has been the undisputed military power since the end of the Cold War. To support this it routinely spends more on its military industrial complex than up to the next six countries combined. This is part of the bargain it struck at the end of WW2 to police the world and secure the world’s trading routes in order to facilitate the great economic expansion that this period experienced.
You could argue that this bargain was exploited by certain business interests and organizations like the CIA. Soon funds were hidden in black budgets supporting things like regime change or activities that often contradicted the stated American values of democracy and openness. It has culminated in things like the Neoconservative movement that had us chasing war and debt in failed missions in the Middle East at the behest of Israel.
At present the US does not have the will or remaining money to keep supporting initiatives in places like Iran, Iraq, or Ukraine. There are too many issues at home to justify military actions that neither strengthen the homeland or support the initial intentions of this military doctrine. But the interests profiting from the largesse of military budgets are a powerful lobby and will continue to push to for more dollars in spite of obvious constraints in our budget.
Debt Monster
I wrote about the crippling effects of debt here and it is something that is looming over the current US government. The current debt exceeds $39 trillion dollars which is 122% of the overall GDP. For historical context the US debt was only 106% of GDP at the peak of WW2 and was at 84% during the Financial Crisis 0f 2008.
There is an open question regarding how sustainable this is and how long it can last before creditors come calling. At present there is no real effort by Congress (Including both parties) to rein in spending and the debt continues to grow.
Political Polarization
There’s a quaint tale from the Reagan days about how he could often reach across the aisle to people like Tip O’Neill to get legislation passed. Often it was imperfect but it was directionally good and a bill built on compromise was often better than no bill at all.
It felt like things changed with Clinton and Gingrich in the 90’s. The opposition between the two led to the government shutdowns of 1995. The divides were accelerated by the mainstream adoption of cable news like CNN and Fox. There appeared to be a change in incentives and politicians focused more on shouting to their bases than dealing with the other side. The resulting gridlock has stymied any meaningful attempt to address our growing problems and anything that does get passed is usually done at the behest and dollars of the special interests that exert excessive control over both parties. (Look into Citizens United)
Nadir of Hollywood and Cultural Cachet
During the late days of the Cold War you’d hear stories of people behind the Iron Curtain smuggling jeans and rock and roll to their people. The soft power generated by programs like Radio Free Europe and Hollywood writ large carried just as much weight as an aircraft carrier laden with F-16’s. It didn’t hurt that you had the CIA behind the scenes pushing the American narrative via programs like Operation Mockingbird.
MJ: Embodiment of American cultural power
Whether it was complacency or lack of creativity the US doesn’t have the same cultural weight as it once did. Apart from someone like Taylor Swift there are very few successors to the mantle once shouldered by icons like Elvis, Michael Jackson, Michael Jordan, or Madonna. Most new cultural output is seen as derivative or driven by profit and most people agree that places like Korea are putting out better pop culture.
Where does that leave us?
Rome still managed to survive around 300 years after the conclusion of its Pax Romana and the legacy carried even further through the Byzantine Empire. America has shown its resiliency many times so it is folly to count it out. All you need to do is look at some of the literature that came out of the stagflation days of the 1970’s.
One could spend a few minutes observing the media coverage of America right now and conclude that it is in terminal decline. They wouldn’t be wrong but there is a much more complicated picture to observe. America has evolved and recreated itself unlike any other people in history and one can hope and expect that it can figure a way out of its current morass. Fingers crossed.
Are we still the shining city on the hill?
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