America is at a crossroads….do we need Diocletian?
“Unprincipled greed appears wherever our armies… march. Our law shall fix a measure and a limit to this greed.”
– Diocletian
“If America ever falls, it will be an inside job.”
– Paul Harvey (allegedly)
History teaches us that excellence is hard to sustain. The grim reality is that things decay, complacency seeps in, and corruption takes over. Fortunately, it typically happens gradually which means there are warning signs and opportunities for course correction. In Rome there are a few examples of corrections and we will focus on Diocletian and his reforms. We will then determine if the US finds itself in a similar set of circumstances to those experienced in the crisis of the 3rd Century.
Let’s set the stage at 284 AD. The Roman Empire was collapsing under the weight of the Crisis of the Third Century. It was a chaotic fifty-year stretch that nearly shattered Roman civilization. Decades of relentless civil war, external invasions along the Rhine and Danube frontiers, and runaway economic hyperinflation had rendered the empire virtually ungovernable. Rome had seen dozens of short-lived “barracks emperors“—generals elevated by their troops only to be assassinated shortly after—which stripped the central government of authority, eroded army discipline, and left provincial borders dangerously exposed to foreign threats.
It was into this morass that Diocletian stepped in as Emperor. Like those before him he rose through the ranks of the military by becoming a trusted commander of an earlier Emperor Carus during his Persian campaigns. Following a common script his ascension came through the defeat of a competing rival, Carinus, at the Battle of the Margus. He won the purple but inherited a Rome on the verge of collapse.
The vast Empire was saddled with many dire issues that were threatening its continued viability. These included:
- Urban/Rural disparities- Taxes could no longer support urban projects and many wealthy fled to fortified rural estates called villae rusticae. As a result infrastructure became neglected and an abandoned and poorer urban population became increasingly dissatisfied. Many see this as the potential origins of feudalism.
- Debt- With tax evasion increasing and the tax base not growing the Empire took on more and more debt. Ideas of debt financing wouldn’t come along for a few hundred more years in places like Venice and Florence. Options were limited and circumstances usually called for coin debasement.
- Shrinking traditional “Roman” population- Countless civil wars and recent plagues (like the Cyprian) had devastated the population centers within Rome and Italy. Economic conditions also dissuaded many Romans from growing their families. Meanwhile more foreign populations on the fringes of the Empire were growing.
- Economic imbalance- By the late 3rd century AD, the economic center of gravity in the Roman world had shifted decisively to the East. The Western Roman Empire was increasingly rural, impoverished, and financially strained, while the Eastern Roman Empire remained densely populated, commercially active, and immensely wealthy.
- Invasions- The borders of the Empire were under assault nowhere is this more clear then with Persia. Shapur crushed multiple Roman armies, sacking dozens of rich cities across Syria, Cilicia, and Cappadocia, including Antioch. This included the Humiliation of Valerian —where he defeated and captured the Emperor alive. Valerian became a human footstool for the Persian king and died in captivity, delivering a devastating psychological and political blow to Roman authority.
The task was daunting but Diocletian was up to the challenge. He was so successful, at least for a time, that he was one of the few Emperors who actually managed to retire and abdicate the throne. While the reforms weren’t perfect they managed to slow the bleeding and extend the life of the Empire. They included:
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The famous Tetrarchy sculpture in Venice
Establishment of the Tetrarchy– (Two Augusti, Two Caesars). This administrative system aimed to solve the succession crisis and secure Rome’s sprawling borders by distributing imperial authority across four competent military leaders working in tandem.
- Ultimately it fails and leads to Constantine. (insert image of Tetrarchy sculpture)
- Tax Reform (Capitatio-Iugatio)- He established a standardized, regular tax system based on land units (iuga) and human/animal labor (capita). To ensure predictable tax revenues, citizens were legally bound to their land and professions—laying the structural groundwork for medieval feudalism.
- Edict on Maximum Prices (301 AD)- To curb hyperinflation, he capped maximum prices for hundreds of goods and services, punishable by death. It wasn’t widely enforced and wasn’t practiced after he retired.
- Bureaucratic Restructuring- To prevent provincial governors from launching coups, Diocletian doubled the number of provinces by making them smaller, stripping governors of military command, and grouping them into 12 Dioceses overseen by imperial vicars.
- New Coinage-: He attempted to re-establish confidence in Roman money by issuing standard gold (solidus) and silver coins. It tamped inflation for awhile but like Gresham’s law of coinage states, the people hoarded their older, better coins.
Like Rome during the 3rd Century America is currently at a crossroads. The last 10-20 years has seen its dominant position as the sole hegemon challenged. Cracks have been exposed but there is time to address them. Here’s where we currently stand.
- Debt- Our current debt is cresting at $40 Trillion and isn’t showing an signs of slowing down. It has only accelerated under the Trump administration. Our payments to service this debt now exceed our military expenditures.
- Inflation– We aren’t Turkey or Weimar Germany but the average American certainly is feeling the sting of increasing costs.
- Military Over Extension- The US no longer has the will or the means to be the global enforcer. 25 years of Neocon lead wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and now Iran have only demonstrated that there is no more support or real justification for these wars that don’t serve American interests at home.
- Migration and Population Dynamics- Like Rome the native born US population is shrinking and this trend is being countered by an increase in migrants. The three key groups are: H1B visa holders taking white collar jobs, refugees coming from countries devastated by America’s wars abroad, and labor needed to support our service economy.
- Polarization- The country has never been more divided. But there is a change happening. The traditional left-right divide has started to give way to one that pits the elites against the majority. More and more people have begun to realize that both parties have contributed to the circumstances in which we currently find ourselves.
- Class Divide- The American dream is no longer universally available and the K-Shaped economy is our new reality. The average American sees their costs increase and their wages stagnate while the politically connected crony capitalists use the government to grift their way to more earnings.
Our current situation ain’t pretty. Cynicism is high. Our clout on the global stage is shrinking. We are a nation that is over taxed but struggling to see much positive results from the money the government extracts from us. Simply put we are at a crossroads and what we do over the next 10 years can potentially determine how much longer the American Empire can shoulder on.
We are in a similar position to what Diocletian observed all of those centuries ago. We might ask ourselves what reforms might he institute in order to keep this Republic and its Empire afloat? A more important question might be, do we even want the types of reforms that he would propose? After all many of his reforms meant more government and most of us today agree that our government is more a source of problems than a provider of solutions.
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